Air quality has substantial impacts on human health and lives. Elevated ozone in the air we breathe can irritate person's respiratory system, reduce lung function, aggravate asthma, and chronic lung diseases. Elevated concentrations of pollution by fine particles (especially those smaller than 2.5 microns) can affect both lung function and hearth function, even leading to hearth attacks and premature deaths.   Reductions in the pollutant emissions in the recent years have helped reduce ozone pollution. However, temperature rise due to climate change is expected to lead to worse air quality.

Noblis has supported NOAA's Air Quality prediction program since its beginnings in 2003.   NOAA operational predictions include hourly concentrations of ozone and wildfire smoke for 48 hours.   Amounts of ozone or smoke in the air we breathe depend on many factors. Ozone is created through chemical reactions among pollutants in the presence of sunshine.   The amount of smoke produced in a wildfire depends on the size of the fire and the material that is burning among other features.  In addition, meteorological conditions influence how much pollution stays close to the ground in the air we breathe, how much gets removed by settling or by raindrops, and how much gets lifted higher up in the atmosphere where it can get transported away.   Examples of 48 hours of predictions are shown for ozone (figure above) and smoke concentrations (figure below).

Air quality index based on these predictions is available through cross-agency AIRNow web site and the predictions are provided to local and state air quality forecasters who issue air quality alerts.  General public can use NOAA's air quality predictions to alter their activities and reduce their exposure to air pollution.  Noblis has been involved in scientific studies  link to publications of I. Stajner) on the impact of lateral boundary conditions or vertical mixing on the surface ozone predictions in NOAA's model.  Noblis supports expansions of NOAA's air quality predictions and efforts to plan and develop future predictions of dust and particulate matter concentrations in the air we breathe.