Conversion technologies
Our staff developed integrated simulation models of coal, waste, and natural-gas-based plants for the production of transportation fuels, chemicals, hydrogen, and electric power. These models simulate the performance of the plants from feedstock to refined products and include complete estimates of construction, capital, and operating costs with resulting project viability assessment. The models are used by the U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) to (1) quantify the benefits of project research and development, (2) assess the feasibility of projects based on expected component performance, siting, and feedstock costs, and (3) perform cost/benefit analyses and studies of "what if" scenarios. These models provide the DOE with a research guidance tool so that limited research and development funds can be applied to those technical approaches most likely to result in the highest benefits for the country's future energy and environmental security.
Energy demand/supply modeling
Our staff developed world and country-by-country energy demand models from the present to the year 2100. These models estimate world and/or country-by-country demand for total commercial energy and energy demand for sectors based on estimations of annual change in commercial energy use per capita and rates of population increase. These demand estimates are then matched against potential energy supply. Energy policy planners can use these models to make informed energy-related decisions that will maximize the energy security of a country based on resources and the most appropriate technologies. World oil resource implications derived from our model have been corroborated by the World Resources Institute.
Department of Energy’s Research and Development Program
Assessing the impacts
The DOE’s Office of Fossil Energy has an extensive research and development (R&D) program aimed at improving the usage of our fossil energy resources, particularly coal. The goal is to develop advanced technologies that will improve the efficiency of processes that generate power and chemicals from coal while mitigating or eliminating any adverse environmental impacts, such as the emission of criteria pollutants or large amounts of carbon dioxide into the atmosphere.
Noblis supports this effort by developing computer models for advanced fossil fueled power plants that incorporate the technologies under development by the DOE. Noblis is uniquely qualified to provide this support for three reasons: First, Noblis has no vested interest in any of the technologies under development and can render fair and impartial assessments. Second, this independence allows us to work closely with the technology developers to obtain proprietary operating data that allows us to develop accurate computer models. Finally, Noblis staff are experts in the use of Aspen Plus ® for fossil fueled processes to produce power or chemicals. The results of Noblis’ systems analysis quantify the cost and performance benefits that a new technology can achieve and help the DOE clearly demonstrate the benefits of their R&D program.
Measuring the progress
The White House Office of Management and Budget (OMB) oversees the DOE’s R&D program and reports to the public on the agencies record on meeting interim milestones for each major program. Noblis supports this effort by developing computer models for hypothetical advanced fossil fueled power plants that incorporate the technologies under development by the DOE at the currently demonstrated level of performance. Noblis’ independence allows us to assess these technologies without bias and the results of our systems analysis are accepted by the OMB as a third-party assessment. As with the technology assessment work, this effort requires expertise in advanced simulation and modeling software as well as a thorough familiarity with DOE’s R&D program. Noblis staff have collectively over 100 years of experience in working with all major focus areas of the DOE’s Fossil Energy R&D program and the experience is vital to developing system models that incorporate the full gamut of the DOE’s R&D portfolio. The results of Noblis’ systems analysis help determine whether the DOE’s R&D program is on track to meet its ultimate goals.