To detect, protect and respond in the face of new threats, organizations across government and the private sector must acquire, analyze and share information. Noblis has developed working models for information sharing between public and private sector entities, integrated vulnerability assessments, and field exercises to test vulnerabilities and response plans. We prepared the first comprehensive proposal for a cross-sector information sharing and analysis center shortly after PDD-64. We are partnering with several government and private sector organizations on a prototype information-sharing resource that will enhance access to vital information on threats, capabilities, and response to catastrophic terrorism threats.
Constructive Analysis Models for Threat Assessment
A key Noblis contribution to threat assessment is an approach called constructive analysis. Conceptually, constructive analysis is a simple process. Beginning with a generic acquisition model of the threat, the analyst augments and modifies the model to accommodate each piece of data or information and links that part of the model to the supporting document. Why an acquisition model? Because the adversary has to accomplish certain things in a certain order to acquire the capability to attack. At different points in time, terrorists may do library research, may try to purchase items, may conduct rudimentary R&D, and may test parts of a system. We may have knowledge about some parts of this cycle and may be missing others—knowing that a certain step has to be carried out as a prerequisite to another step may suggest new places to look for information or new kinds of information to look for.
Over time, the model can be built up to a great degree of detail. A production process can be broken down into individual components, all the way down to the level of the starting materials, the kind of equipment being used, and the characteristics of the equipment that might be detectable by some means. Once it has been built, the model can be queried or “mined” to address specific questions or to generate broad reports; it can also be probed to verify the evidence about an activity, a person, or an institution. The model can serve as a collaborative tool, so that different participants can each contribute in their own best way to synthesis. It can serve as corporate memory, to preserve efforts of an individual that rotates to a new assignment.
Knowledge Management Systems
We are applying our unique capability in knowledge management to address the need across many domains for structured access to information and expertise, decision support and collaborative operations. The following initiatives are illustrative of our efforts:
- Counter-Terrorism TIPS Call Center
- Investigative Support Systems (ISS)
- USDA Agricultural Research Service (ARS)
- FBI and States
- County Governments
- Risk and Safety Management Alert System (RASMAS)
- Collaboration & Intelligence Now System (CAINS)
- Incident Management Personnel Accountability System (IMPAS)
Counter-Terrorism TIPS Call Center: Law enforcement is becoming more dependent on tips and information from citizens in solving crimes and in exposing fraud, drug interdiction and terrorist plots. At the same time, the sources of these tips are expanding beyond U.S. borders, and the medium is expanding from phones to email and soon may also include instant messaging. As a result of this expansion, the number of tips is growing exponentially and it is taking more people longer to assign priorities to the tips and to find relationships among them. The current approach can create unacceptable and dangerous delays, is becoming costly, and is error prone.
For a government client, Noblis is developing a prototype system to aid in the processing of tips. The TIPS processing system is an “end-to-end” solution that prioritizes incoming tips, is capable of being trained to identify bogus tips, notifies domain experts of the existence of high priority situations, and allows operators to search for relationships and missing links. The approach, if successful, is anticipated to reduce manual processing by as much as 80 percent, to dramatically reduce processing times, and to result in a much more rapid response by authorities, as well as improved inter-agency collaboration.
Investigative Support Systems (ISS): Criminal and civil investigations are frequently composed of a large collection of facts and findings that are gathered and filed during the inquiry. Making sense of these facts, or finding relationships in them, generally depends on a person with experience reviewing the files and, from insight or serendipity, discovering patterns, trends and directions. This process is generally erratic, can depend on the experience and time available to the investigator and does not have a standard methodology. For the National Institute of Justice, Noblis is developing a prototype investigation support system to aid in this process. Besides aiding criminal justice organizations in solving complex multi-jurisdictional criminal investigations, the system will also assist in training people in investigative techniques and practices.