Introduction Each of us is a decision maker, and the quality of our decisions determines whether we succeed, fail, or simply just get by. Through the ages, even rudimentary decision making has required analysis. It makes sense then that decision quality is driven by the quality of the analytic tools and data applied, whether scraps of paper or a discreteevent simulation model developed by a full cadre over many months. As increasingly sophisticated analytic tools become available on miniaturized platforms-desktop, laptop, and even personal digital assistants-we decision makers can slide down the slope from back-of-the-envelope calculations to sophisticated models in minutes. It is a time of great convenience for decision analysts, but it is also a dangerous time: Combining these tools with the rich feature set in today's database software can mask the quality and amount of available data. This begs the critical question: What level of analysis is appropriate for the decision at hand?
In this issue, guest editors Karl Wunderlich and Marty Fischer look at Noblis' work in tackling decisionmaking challenges within numerous federal and state government programs, as well as insights gained from our internal research program. The aim is to provide a framework-addressing the two dimensions of model complexity and data quality-that lets decision makers determine what tool, what model, and what solution will best serve the problem they face. All the articles look at actual modeling efforts and present a set of takeaway lessons that could apply in a range of situations. These lessons make it clear that modern computerized analysis and data capabilities can be as dangerous as they are effective. They also give valuable practical advice that will help decision makers be successful, whether they are individuals performing analysis in solo or as part of a team.
"Sigma Spotlight," our brief look at a single ongoing project, also looks at providing an appropriate analytic foundation. In this research, the focus is on decision makers who must prepare for a potential naturally occurring or terrorist instigated biological event. Finally, "In Addition" points to other articles on decision analysis by Noblis authors.
The sword on the cover is a symbol for the power that we wield as decision makers. As you read through the articles, I am confident that you will come away better equipped to use that power intelligently.
H. Gilbert Miller, Ph.D.
Corporate Vice President and Chief Technology Officer
hgmiller@noblis.org